Today’s Cross-Country Pick-5 wager starts at 3:52 (ET) with the Miss Liberty Stakes at Monmouth Park, which is their 7th race of the afternoon.
Leg A: Monmouth Park, The Miss Liberty Stakes:This race came up fairly strong for an ungraded stakes race on the grass. We have the last two winners of the Grade 3 La Prevoyante Stakes at Gulfstream, along with a Group 3 winner in Europe and those might not be the best horses in this race. A Girl Named Charlie (#4) is coming off a nice N3X allowance score at Keeneland last month. She keeps getting better in her four year old season. She tired late in a pair of stakes races at the Fair Grounds, catching softer courses both times. She was a stakes winner there last winter and all four of her career wins have come on a firm course. She has inside position on Alpha Bella (#5), who is the second choice on the morning for Pletcher, in this spot. I think she’s well-spotted to get her second straight victory. Elounda Queen (#6) was thrown into the wolves in her first three North American starts. She faced Grade 1 company each time, finishing near the back of the field all three times. She’s been given some time off and she returns fresh for her four year old debut, running for Rodolphe Brisset for the first time. Tax Implications (#7) might emerge as the most talented runner to come out of this field. She was very good, losing some tough races last summer. She can run on any type of turf, but she’d be very tough if there was some give in the ground. Alpha Bella is the reigning La Prevoyante Stakes winner, scoring in gate to wire fashion in that 12 furlong marathon. She makes her first start since that effort, and while she’s capable of winning a race like this at this distance, I think she’s more effective the longer the race is. She’s another improving four year old and she gets Paco Lopez to ride, so there are reasons to use her in this spot as well.
Leg B: Belmont at the Big A, Race 7:
I’m going to play against the Chad Brown entry and try to survive this 11 furlong maiden special weight going only two deep. I think the maiden special weight race at Keeneland on 4/6 is going to be a key race and I thought both Stop the Press (#7) and El Rezeen (#9) ran strong races behind White Palomino that day. We saw White Palomino in this sequence yesterday when he was a strong second place finisher in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge Stakes for three year olds going nine furlongs. He was run down late by a much more accomplished Charlie Appleby runner who was the heavy favorite. White Palomino had the run of the race at Keeneland that day, while both Stop the Press and El Rezeen had to endure some bumping and crowding at the break. Stop the Press broke inside of El Rezeen, who was hung out in post 12. However, Stop the Press wound up three deep, outside of El Rezeen going into the first turn. Stop the Press was widest off all on the second turn, but was still gaining late, finishing about a length and half behind El Rezeen. With a better trip, he could close that gap today. El Rezeen is bred to get this distance and I trust Ortiz to work out the right kind of trip as he stretches out in distance. I think these two are the ones that will decide this contest.
Leg C: Monmouth Park, Race 8:
I think this race sets up nicely for Take Charge Chloe (#9), who is coming off a strong pair of races at the end of the Tampa meet. She was a dominating winner of an open $20K claiming race two starts back and she just missed in a starter allowance race at the end of April. Her stalking style and her outside post fit the profile of the way the main track was playing last week. I think she’s in better form than most of her competition in this race. She’s one of my stronger opinions this afternoon.
Leg D: Belmont at the Big A, Race 8:
I see Shadow Dragon (#8) as the one to beat in this state bred N2X allowance race. He’ll be making his first start of the year in this race for Bill Mott. He’s run five times at this condition, hitting the board in four of them. His three starts at this one turn mile distance have been sharp though, beaten by horses that ran big races. I don’t see any standout runners in this spot, and Mott’s horses are typically sharp off the layoff. Colloquy (#3) is a price horse that has been running solid races with open claimers. While this is a step up in class, it’s not a huge jump, as those open claiming races here in New York are always feisty contests. I think his tactical speed will allow him to sit the right trip. He’ll be on this ticket, but the favorite, Bank Frenzy (#9) would be the first place I’d look to pare down this ticket. I like the outside draw and he is logical here dropping out of an open allowance race at Gulfstream. When he’s on his game, he’s very tough, but I’m not convinced that this one turn mile is the best distance for him.
Leg E: Monmouth Park, Race 9:
The race in this sequence is an optional $30K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds and up, sprinting about 5 ½ furlongs out of the chute. I touted Chuck Willis (#1) last weekend in an open claiming race at Aqueduct where he was scratched. Instead, Wayne Potts opts to get this eight year old gelding back on the turf after four strong dirt races at the Big A. This move is a little curious to me, however, he has the best early speed and the rail, which is a big deal on this course in races coming out of the chute. While this course tends to be more fair when the rails are at 0, a large field coming of the chute could create the right kind of chaos behind the pacesetter. I trust he can keep rolling while racing on the lawn. Another eight year old, Mid Day Image (#6) knows how to win races. He’s won 14 times in 38 career starts, three of which came on this course. He was a very good front running router, but at this point in his career, he’s developed into a solid stalking sprinter. He won his 2024 debut at Laurel and he’s a candidate to win again here. Maya Prince (#5) makes his first start of the year today. His lone start on this course wasn’t great. He lost to Grooms All Bizness, who just won a stakes race on the Preakness undercard last week. He needs a strong early pace and River Dog (#10) could be the one that applies all the heat to Chuck Willis in the early going. That one is trying the turf for the first time, so it’s not always a given that the early speed he has shown on the dirt will translate to the grass. I’ll use Maya Prince as a backup, because I do think that scenario would favor a horse like him. The same could be said for Son of a Birch (#2). The inside draw that should be so favorable for Chuck Willis, may prove to be a problem for this gelded son of Temple City. He was very good when clearing the N1X condition against a solid field at the Fair Grounds in his most recent start. He doesn’t have great speed and could wind buried behind some runners if Nik Juarez isn’t careful. The talent is there, but I’m not sold that he’ll get the best trip today.
